Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Lyon vs Le Havre
Saturday 29 Aug, 18:45
Full time
1–1
chances 2.31 – 1.10 xG
✗ missed — we picked LYO; the draw we priced at 23%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
61 · 23 · 17LYO · draw · LE
2–0
Likeliest LYO win · 11%
LYON 61%DRAW 23%LE HAVRE 17%
Expected goals: LYO 1.97 · LE 0.94
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
LYO or draw83%
Draw or LE39%
LYO or LEno draw77%
Draw no bet
LYOstake returned on a draw78%
LE22%
Clean sheets
LYO clean sheet39%
LE clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LYO↓ LE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–1 · 10.7%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lyon and Le Havre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
LYO 32 drawn1 LE
2025/26Le Havre0–0Lyon2026-03-15
2025/26Lyon1–0Le Havre2025-12-14
2024/25Lyon4–2Le Havre2025-03-16
2024/25Le Havre0–4Lyon2024-10-20
2023/24Le Havre3–1Lyon2024-01-14
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.