Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Lyon vs Auxerre
Friday 4 Sept, 18:00
Full time
3–1
chances 2.88 – 0.91 xG
✓ called — we picked LYO; the LYO win we priced at 59%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
60 · 23 · 18LYO · draw · AUX
2–0
Likeliest LYO win · 10%
LYON 60%DRAW 23%AUXERRE 18%
Expected goals: LYO 1.97 · AUX 0.99
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
LYO or draw82%
Draw or AUX41%
LYO or AUXno draw77%
Draw no bet
LYOstake returned on a draw77%
AUX23%
Clean sheets
LYO clean sheet37%
AUX clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LYO↓ AUX→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–1 · 6.5%
A LYO win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lyon and Auxerre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
LYO 32 drawn1 AUX
2025/26Lyon3–2Auxerre2026-04-25
2025/26Auxerre0–0Lyon2025-11-23
2024/25Auxerre1–3Lyon2025-04-13
2024/25Lyon2–2Auxerre2024-10-27
2022/23Auxerre2–1Lyon2023-02-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.