Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Lorient vs Troyes

Saturday 29 Aug, 18:45
Full time
1–2
chances 1.02 – 1.68 xG
✗ missed — we picked LOR; the TRO win we priced at 13%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
65 · 22 · 13LOR · draw · TRO
2–0
Likeliest LOR win · 12%
LORIENT 65%DRAW 22%TROYES 13%

Expected goals: LOR 1.99 · TRO 0.80

Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
LOR or draw87%
Draw or TRO35%
LOR or TROno draw78%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw83%
TRO17%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet45%
TRO clean sheet14%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LOR↓ TRO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–2 · 3.8%
A TRO win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
LOR 32 drawn1 TRO
2022/23Lorient2–0Troyes2023-03-12
2022/23Troyes2–2Lorient2022-10-23
2021/22Lorient1–1Troyes2022-05-21
2021/22Troyes2–0Lorient2021-12-01
2015/16Troyes0–1Lorient2016-02-27

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.