Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Lorient vs Toulouse
Saturday 12 Sept, 18:45
36 · 28 · 36LOR · draw · TOU
1–0
Likeliest LOR win · 9%
LORIENT 36%DRAW 28%TOULOUSE 36%
Expected goals: LOR 1.30 · TOU 1.29
Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
LOR or draw64%
Draw or TOU64%
LOR or TOUno draw72%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw50%
TOU50%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet27%
TOU clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LOR↓ TOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LOR goals, columns TOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
LOR 25 drawn5 TOU
2025/26Toulouse1–0Lorient2026-03-21
2025/26Lorient1–1Toulouse2025-11-09
2023/24Lorient1–2Toulouse2024-04-28
2023/24Toulouse1–1Lorient2023-12-03
2022/23Lorient0–1Toulouse2023-04-23
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.