Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Lorient vs Toulouse

Saturday 12 Sept, 19:45
Full time
2–2
chances 0.69 – 1.34 xG
✗ missed — we picked LOR; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
37 · 28 · 35LOR · draw · TOU
1–0
Likeliest LOR win · 9%
LORIENT 37%DRAW 28%TOULOUSE 35%

Expected goals: LOR 1.29 · TOU 1.25

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
LOR or draw65%
Draw or TOU63%
LOR or TOUno draw72%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw51%
TOU49%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet29%
TOU clean sheet28%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LOR↓ TOU→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–2 · 5.2%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
LOR 25 drawn5 TOU
2025/26Toulouse1–0Lorient2026-03-21
2025/26Lorient1–1Toulouse2025-11-09
2023/24Lorient1–2Toulouse2024-04-28
2023/24Toulouse1–1Lorient2023-12-03
2022/23Lorient0–1Toulouse2023-04-23

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.