Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lorient vs Paris FC
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
37 · 28 · 35LOR · draw · PAR
1–0
Likeliest LOR win · 9%
LORIENT 37%DRAW 28%PARIS FC 35%
Expected goals: LOR 1.33 · PAR 1.30
Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
LOR or draw65%
Draw or PAR63%
LOR or PARno draw72%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw51%
PAR49%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet27%
PAR clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LOR↓ PAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LOR goals, columns PAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Paris FC — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
LOR 01 drawn1 PAR
2025/26Lorient1–1Paris FC2026-04-05
2025/26Paris FC2–0Lorient2025-10-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.