Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lorient vs Monaco
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
30 · 27 · 43LOR · draw · MON
1–2
Likeliest MON win · 9%
LORIENT 30%DRAW 27%MONACO 43%
Expected goals: LOR 1.25 · MON 1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
LOR or draw57%
Draw or MON70%
LOR or MONno draw73%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw41%
MON59%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet21%
MON clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LOR↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LOR goals, columns MON. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
LOR 55 drawn6 MON
2025/26Monaco1–3Lorient2026-01-16
2025/26Lorient3–1Monaco2025-09-27
2023/24Monaco2–2Lorient2024-03-17
2023/24Lorient2–2Monaco2023-09-17
2022/23Monaco3–1Lorient2023-04-16
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.