Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Lorient vs Brest
Saturday 31 Oct, 19:45
41 · 27 · 33LOR · draw · BRE
2–1
Likeliest LOR win · 9%
LORIENT 41%DRAW 27%BREST 33%
Expected goals: LOR 1.50 · BRE 1.33
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LOR or draw67%
Draw or BRE60%
LOR or BREno draw73%
Draw no bet
LORstake returned on a draw55%
BRE45%
Clean sheets
LOR clean sheet26%
BRE clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LOR↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LOR goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Brest — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2020/21
LOR 41 drawn5 BRE
2025/26Brest2–0Lorient2026-02-08
2025/26Lorient3–3Brest2025-10-19
2023/24Lorient0–1Brest2024-03-31
2023/24Brest4–0Lorient2023-12-20
2022/23Lorient2–1Brest2023-05-07
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.