Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Lille vs Troyes
Sunday 13 Sept, 13:00
71 · 20 · 9LIL · draw · TRO
2–0
Likeliest LIL win · 14%
LILLE 71%DRAW 20%TROYES 9%
Expected goals: LIL 2.09 · TRO 0.63
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams score42%
Double chance
LIL or draw91%
Draw or TRO29%
LIL or TROno draw80%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw89%
TRO12%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet53%
TRO clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ TRO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIL goals, columns TRO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2015/16
LIL 23 drawn3 TRO
2022/23Troyes1–1Lille2023-06-03
2022/23Lille5–1Troyes2023-01-15
2021/22Troyes3–0Lille2022-05-01
2021/22Lille2–1Troyes2021-12-04
2017/18Troyes1–0Lille2018-01-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.