Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Lille vs Troyes
Sunday 13 Sept, 14:00
Full time
2–0
chances 2.05 – 0.35 xG
✓ called — we picked LIL; the LIL win we priced at 75%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
75 · 17 · 8LIL · draw · TRO
2–0
Likeliest LIL win · 13%
LILLE 75%DRAW 17%TROYES 8%
Expected goals: LIL 2.44 · TRO 0.70
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
LIL or draw92%
Draw or TRO25%
LIL or TROno draw84%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw90%
TRO10%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet50%
TRO clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ TRO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–0 · 12.9%
A LIL win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2015/16
LIL 23 drawn3 TRO
2022/23Troyes1–1Lille2023-06-03
2022/23Lille5–1Troyes2023-01-15
2021/22Troyes3–0Lille2022-05-01
2021/22Lille2–1Troyes2021-12-04
2017/18Troyes1–0Lille2018-01-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.