Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Lille vs PSG
Friday 28 Aug, 18:45
Full time
2–2
chances 1.16 – 1.78 xG
✗ missed — we picked PSG; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
31 · 28 · 41LIL · draw · PSG
0–1
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
LILLE 31%DRAW 28%PSG 41%
Expected goals: LIL 1.18 · PSG 1.41
Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
LIL or draw59%
Draw or PSG69%
LIL or PSGno draw72%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw43%
PSG57%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet24%
PSG clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ PSG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–2 · 5.2%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and PSG — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
LIL 25 drawn17 PSG
2025/26PSG3–0Lille2026-01-16
2025/26Lille1–1PSG2025-10-05
2024/25PSG4–1Lille2025-03-01
2024/25Lille1–3PSG2024-09-01
2023/24PSG3–1Lille2024-02-10
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.