Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Lille vs Lens
Friday 30 Oct, 20:05
37 · 27 · 36LIL · draw · LEN
2–1
Likeliest LIL win · 8%
LILLE 37%DRAW 27%LENS 36%
Expected goals: LIL 1.40 · LEN 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
LIL or draw64%
Draw or LEN63%
LIL or LENno draw73%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw51%
LEN49%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet26%
LEN clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ LEN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIL goals, columns LEN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2014/15
LIL 83 drawn3 LEN
2025/26Lille3–0Lens2026-04-04
2025/26Lens3–0Lille2025-09-20
2024/25Lille1–0Lens2025-03-30
2024/25Lens0–2Lille2024-10-26
2023/24Lille2–1Lens2024-03-29
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.