Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lille vs Le Havre
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
63 · 23 · 14LIL · draw · LE
1–0
Likeliest LIL win · 12%
LILLE 63%DRAW 23%LE HAVRE 14%
Expected goals: LIL 1.90 · LE 0.78
Goals
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
LIL or draw86%
Draw or LE37%
LIL or LEno draw77%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw82%
LE18%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet46%
LE clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ LE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIL goals, columns LE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Le Havre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
LIL 41 drawn1 LE
2025/26Lille1–1Le Havre2026-05-03
2025/26Le Havre0–1Lille2025-11-30
2024/25Lille1–2Le Havre2025-02-08
2024/25Le Havre0–3Lille2024-09-28
2023/24Lille3–0Le Havre2024-02-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.