Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lille vs Brest
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
54 · 25 · 21LIL · draw · BRE
1–0
Likeliest LIL win · 10%
LILLE 54%DRAW 25%BREST 21%
Expected goals: LIL 1.77 · BRE 1.01
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
LIL or draw79%
Draw or BRE46%
LIL or BREno draw75%
Draw no bet
LILstake returned on a draw73%
BRE28%
Clean sheets
LIL clean sheet36%
BRE clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIL↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIL goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Brest — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 13 meetings since 2019/20
LIL 46 drawn3 BRE
2025/26Lille1–1Brest2026-02-14
2025/26Brest3–3Lille2025-08-17
2024/25Brest2–0Lille2025-05-10
2024/25Lille3–1Brest2024-12-06
2023/24Brest1–1Lille2024-03-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.