Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Lens vs Paris FC
Saturday 24 Oct, 19:45
58 · 23 · 19LEN · draw · PAR
2–1
Likeliest LEN win · 10%
LENS 58%DRAW 23%PARIS FC 19%
Expected goals: LEN 2.02 · PAR 1.09
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LEN or draw81%
Draw or PAR42%
LEN or PARno draw78%
Draw no bet
LENstake returned on a draw75%
PAR25%
Clean sheets
LEN clean sheet34%
PAR clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEN↓ PAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEN goals, columns PAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lens and Paris FC — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
LEN 20 drawn0 PAR
2025/26Paris FC0–5Lens2026-02-14
2025/26Lens2–1Paris FC2025-10-19
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.