Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lens vs Lyon
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
53 · 23 · 24LEN · draw · LYO
2–1
Likeliest LEN win · 10%
LENS 53%DRAW 23%LYON 24%
Expected goals: LEN 1.98 · LYO 1.31
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
LEN or draw76%
Draw or LYO48%
LEN or LYOno draw77%
Draw no bet
LENstake returned on a draw68%
LYO32%
Clean sheets
LEN clean sheet27%
LYO clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEN↓ LYO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEN goals, columns LYO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lens and Lyon — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2014/15
LEN 63 drawn5 LYO
2025/26Lyon0–4Lens2026-05-17
2025/26Lens0–1Lyon2025-08-16
2024/25Lyon1–2Lens2025-05-04
2024/25Lens0–0Lyon2024-09-15
2023/24Lyon0–3Lens2024-03-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.