Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Lens vs Lorient
Saturday 5 Sept, 16:15
Full time
0–1
chances 1.10 – 1.03 xG
✗ missed — we picked LEN; the LOR win we priced at 13%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
69 · 18 · 13LEN · draw · LOR
2–0
Likeliest LEN win · 10%
LENS 69%DRAW 18%LORIENT 13%
Expected goals: LEN 2.42 · LOR 0.98
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LEN or draw87%
Draw or LOR31%
LEN or LORno draw82%
Draw no bet
LENstake returned on a draw84%
LOR16%
Clean sheets
LEN clean sheet37%
LOR clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEN↓ LOR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–1 · 2.8%
A LOR win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lens and Lorient — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
LEN 63 drawn3 LOR
2025/26Lorient2–1Lens2026-03-14
2025/26Lens3–0Lorient2025-11-02
2023/24Lens2–0Lorient2024-05-03
2023/24Lorient0–0Lens2023-11-04
2022/23Lorient1–3Lens2023-05-21
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.