Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Le Mans vs Toulouse
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
31 · 26 · 43LMF · draw · TOU
1–2
Likeliest TOU win · 9%
LE MANS 31%DRAW 26%TOULOUSE 43%
Expected goals: LMF 1.29 · TOU 1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LMF or draw57%
Draw or TOU69%
LMF or TOUno draw74%
Draw no bet
LMFstake returned on a draw42%
TOU58%
Clean sheets
LMF clean sheet21%
TOU clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LMF↓ TOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LMF goals, columns TOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Mans and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.