Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Le Mans vs Lorient
Saturday 19 Sept, 18:45
Full time
2–1
chances 0.96 – 1.07 xG
✗ missed — we picked LOR; the LMF win we priced at 36%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
36 · 27 · 37LMF · draw · LOR
1–2
Likeliest LOR win · 8%
LE MANS 36%DRAW 27%LORIENT 37%
Expected goals: LMF 1.40 · LOR 1.40
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LMF or draw63%
Draw or LOR64%
LMF or LORno draw73%
Draw no bet
LMFstake returned on a draw50%
LOR50%
Clean sheets
LMF clean sheet25%
LOR clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LMF↓ LOR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 8.3%
A LMF win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Mans and Lorient — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.