Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Le Mans vs Lens
Sunday 13 Sept, 16:15
Full time
2–2
chances 2.16 – 1.88 xG
✗ missed — we picked LEN; the draw we priced at 21%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
17 · 21 · 62LMF · draw · LEN
1–2
Likeliest LEN win · 10%
LE MANS 17%DRAW 21%LENS 62%
Expected goals: LMF 1.12 · LEN 2.25
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
LMF or draw38%
Draw or LEN83%
LMF or LENno draw80%
Draw no bet
LMFstake returned on a draw22%
LEN78%
Clean sheets
LMF clean sheet11%
LEN clean sheet33%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LMF↓ LEN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–2 · 5.5%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Mans and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.