Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Le Mans vs Lens
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:15
15 · 19 · 66LMF · draw · LEN
1–2
Likeliest LEN win · 9%
LE MANS 15%DRAW 19%LENS 66%
Expected goals: LMF 1.14 · LEN 2.45
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals48%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
LMF or draw34%
Draw or LEN85%
LMF or LENno draw81%
Draw no bet
LMFstake returned on a draw19%
LEN81%
Clean sheets
LMF clean sheet9%
LEN clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LMF↓ LEN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LMF goals, columns LEN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Mans and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.