Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Le Havre vs PSG
Friday 30 Oct, 18:00
12 · 18 · 70LE · draw · PSG
0–2
Likeliest PSG win · 11%
LE HAVRE 12%DRAW 18%PSG 70%
Expected goals: LE 0.91 · PSG 2.41
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
LE or draw30%
Draw or PSG88%
LE or PSGno draw82%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw14%
PSG86%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet9%
PSG clean sheet40%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ PSG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LE goals, columns PSG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and PSG — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
LE 01 drawn5 PSG
2025/26Le Havre0–1PSG2026-02-28
2025/26PSG3–0Le Havre2025-11-22
2024/25PSG2–1Le Havre2025-04-19
2024/25Le Havre1–4PSG2024-08-16
2023/24PSG3–3Le Havre2024-04-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.