Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Le Havre vs Monaco
Sunday 23 Aug, 15:15
Full time
0–1
chances 0.66 – 1.66 xG
✓ called — we picked MON; the MON win we priced at 51%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
24 · 25 · 51LE · draw · MON
1–2
Likeliest MON win · 10%
LE HAVRE 24%DRAW 25%MONACO 51%
Expected goals: LE 1.18 · MON 1.79
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
LE or draw49%
Draw or MON76%
LE or MONno draw75%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw32%
MON68%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet17%
MON clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–1 · 8.6%
A MON win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
LE 04 drawn2 MON
2025/26Le Havre0–0Monaco2026-01-24
2025/26Monaco3–1Le Havre2025-08-16
2024/25Le Havre1–1Monaco2025-04-26
2024/25Monaco3–1Le Havre2024-09-22
2023/24Monaco1–1Le Havre2024-02-04
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.