Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Le Havre vs Brest
Saturday 5 Sept, 18:45
34 · 27 · 39LE · draw · BRE
1–2
Likeliest BRE win · 9%
LE HAVRE 34%DRAW 27%BREST 39%
Expected goals: LE 1.34 · BRE 1.44
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
LE or draw61%
Draw or BRE66%
LE or BREno draw73%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw47%
BRE53%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet24%
BRE clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LE goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and Brest — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
LE 10 drawn5 BRE
2025/26Brest2–0Le Havre2026-03-08
2025/26Le Havre1–0Brest2025-10-29
2024/25Le Havre0–1Brest2025-01-26
2024/25Brest2–0Le Havre2024-10-06
2023/24Brest1–0Le Havre2024-03-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.