Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Le Havre vs Auxerre
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
39 · 28 · 33LE · draw · AUX
1–0
Likeliest LE win · 10%
LE HAVRE 39%DRAW 28%AUXERRE 33%
Expected goals: LE 1.33 · AUX 1.20
Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
LE or draw68%
Draw or AUX61%
LE or AUXno draw72%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw55%
AUX45%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet30%
AUX clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ AUX→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LE goals, columns AUX. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and Auxerre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
LE 31 drawn0 AUX
2025/26Le Havre1–1Auxerre2026-04-05
2025/26Auxerre0–1Le Havre2025-10-26
2024/25Auxerre1–2Le Havre2025-05-04
2024/25Le Havre3–1Auxerre2024-09-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.