Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Le Havre vs Angers
Saturday 12 Sept, 18:45
45 · 29 · 26LE · draw · ANG
1–0
Likeliest LE win · 12%
LE HAVRE 45%DRAW 29%ANGERS 26%
Expected goals: LE 1.38 · ANG 1.00
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
LE or draw74%
Draw or ANG55%
LE or ANGno draw71%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw63%
ANG37%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet37%
ANG clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ ANG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LE goals, columns ANG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and Angers — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
LE 12 drawn1 ANG
2025/26Angers1–1Le Havre2026-04-18
2025/26Le Havre2–1Angers2026-01-04
2024/25Angers1–1Le Havre2025-02-02
2024/25Le Havre0–1Angers2024-12-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.