Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Le Havre vs Angers
Saturday 12 Sept, 19:45
Full time
0–0
chances 1.03 – 0.48 xG
✗ missed — we picked LE; the draw we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
44 · 29 · 27LE · draw · ANG
1–0
Likeliest LE win · 12%
LE HAVRE 44%DRAW 29%ANGERS 27%
Expected goals: LE 1.40 · ANG 1.04
Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
LE or draw73%
Draw or ANG56%
LE or ANGno draw71%
Draw no bet
LEstake returned on a draw62%
ANG38%
Clean sheets
LE clean sheet35%
ANG clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LE↓ ANG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 9.7%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Le Havre and Angers — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
LE 12 drawn1 ANG
2025/26Angers1–1Le Havre2026-04-18
2025/26Le Havre2–1Angers2026-01-04
2024/25Angers1–1Le Havre2025-02-02
2024/25Le Havre0–1Angers2024-12-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.