Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Brest vs Toulouse
Saturday 29 Aug, 18:45
Full time
2–2
chances 3.65 – 1.31 xG
✗ missed — we picked TOU; the draw we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
36 · 28 · 37BRE · draw · TOU
0–1
Likeliest TOU win · 9%
BREST 36%DRAW 28%TOULOUSE 37%
Expected goals: BRE 1.33 · TOU 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
BRE or draw63%
Draw or TOU65%
BRE or TOUno draw72%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw49%
TOU51%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet26%
TOU clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ TOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–2 · 5.6%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Brest and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2019/20
BRE 53 drawn2 TOU
2025/26Brest0–2Toulouse2026-01-25
2025/26Toulouse2–0Brest2025-08-24
2024/25Toulouse2–4Brest2025-03-30
2024/25Brest2–0Toulouse2024-09-22
2023/24Toulouse0–3Brest2024-05-19
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.