Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Brest vs PSG
Sunday 13 Sept, 19:45
Full time
0–1
chances 1.24 – 1.33 xG
✓ called — we picked PSG; the PSG win we priced at 59%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
19 · 22 · 59BRE · draw · PSG
1–2
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
BREST 19%DRAW 22%PSG 59%
Expected goals: BRE 1.16 · PSG 2.13
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
BRE or draw41%
Draw or PSG81%
BRE or PSGno draw78%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw25%
PSG75%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet12%
PSG clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ PSG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–1 · 7.5%
A PSG win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Brest and PSG — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 13 meetings since 2019/20
BRE 01 drawn12 PSG
2025/26PSG1–0Brest2026-05-10
2025/26Brest0–3PSG2025-10-25
2024/25Brest2–5PSG2025-02-01
2024/25PSG3–1Brest2024-09-14
2023/24PSG2–2Brest2024-01-28
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.