Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Brest vs Nice
Friday 23 Oct, 19:45
50 · 24 · 26BRE · draw · NIC
2–1
Likeliest BRE win · 10%
BREST 50%DRAW 24%NICE 26%
Expected goals: BRE 1.84 · NIC 1.28
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
BRE or draw74%
Draw or NIC50%
BRE or NICno draw76%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw66%
NIC34%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet28%
NIC clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ NIC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BRE goals, columns NIC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Brest and Nice — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
BRE 35 drawn6 NIC
2025/26Nice2–2Brest2026-02-01
2025/26Brest4–1Nice2025-09-20
2024/25Nice6–0Brest2025-05-17
2024/25Brest0–1Nice2024-11-02
2023/24Brest0–0Nice2024-02-04
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.