Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Auxerre vs Nice
Saturday 12 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–0
chances 1.70 – 0.60 xG
✓ called — we picked AUX; the AUX win we priced at 37%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
37 · 27 · 36AUX · draw · NIC
2–1
Likeliest AUX win · 8%
AUXERRE 37%DRAW 27%NICE 36%
Expected goals: AUX 1.39 · NIC 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
AUX or draw64%
Draw or NIC63%
AUX or NICno draw73%
Draw no bet
AUXstake returned on a draw51%
NIC49%
Clean sheets
AUX clean sheet26%
NIC clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUX↓ NIC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–0 · 8.2%
A AUX win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Auxerre and Nice — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
AUX 23 drawn1 NIC
2025/26Auxerre2–1Nice2026-05-10
2025/26Nice3–1Auxerre2025-08-23
2024/25Nice1–1Auxerre2025-03-14
2024/25Auxerre2–1Nice2024-08-18
2022/23Nice1–1Auxerre2023-03-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.