Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Auxerre vs Le Mans
Sunday 25 Oct, 16:15
44 · 26 · 30AUX · draw · LMF
2–1
Likeliest AUX win · 9%
AUXERRE 44%DRAW 26%LE MANS 30%
Expected goals: AUX 1.61 · LMF 1.30
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
AUX or draw70%
Draw or LMF56%
AUX or LMFno draw74%
Draw no bet
AUXstake returned on a draw59%
LMF41%
Clean sheets
AUX clean sheet27%
LMF clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AUX↓ LMF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AUX goals, columns LMF. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Auxerre and Le Mans — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.