Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Auxerre vs Brest

Sunday 20 Sept, 13:00

Full time

2–1

chances 0.77 – 0.30 xG

✗ missed — we picked BRE; the AUX win we priced at 34%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

34 · 27 · 39AUX · draw · BRE

AUXERRE 34%DRAW 27%BREST 39%

Expected goals: AUX 1.36 · BRE 1.48

Goals

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams score58%

Double chance

AUX or draw61%

Draw or BRE66%

AUX or BREno draw73%

Draw no bet

AUXstake returned on a draw46%

BRE54%

Clean sheets

AUX clean sheet23%

BRE clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.