Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Auxerre vs Angers

Saturday 29 Aug, 18:45
Full time
1–3
chances 1.77 – 1.78 xG
✗ missed — we picked AUX; the ANG win we priced at 24%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
48 · 28 · 24AUX · draw · ANG
1–0
Likeliest AUX win · 13%
AUXERRE 48%DRAW 28%ANGERS 24%

Expected goals: AUX 1.44 · ANG 0.95

Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
AUX or draw76%
Draw or ANG52%
AUX or ANGno draw72%
Draw no bet
AUXstake returned on a draw67%
ANG33%
Clean sheets
AUX clean sheet39%
ANG clean sheet24%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
AUX↓ ANG→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–3 · 1.8%
A ANG win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Auxerre and Angers — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
AUX 22 drawn2 ANG
2025/26Auxerre3–1Angers2026-05-03
2025/26Angers2–0Auxerre2025-11-09
2024/25Angers2–0Auxerre2025-01-19
2024/25Auxerre1–0Angers2024-11-24
2022/23Angers1–1Auxerre2023-02-12

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.