Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Angers vs Troyes

Saturday 19 Sept, 18:45
Full time
2–0
chances 2.39 – 1.16 xG
✓ called — we picked ANG; the ANG win we priced at 49%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
49 · 27 · 24ANG · draw · TRO
1–0
Likeliest ANG win · 11%
ANGERS 49%DRAW 27%TROYES 24%

Expected goals: ANG 1.55 · TRO 1.00

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
ANG or draw76%
Draw or TRO51%
ANG or TROno draw73%
Draw no bet
ANGstake returned on a draw68%
TRO32%
Clean sheets
ANG clean sheet37%
TRO clean sheet21%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ANG↓ TRO→012345
0
1
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2–0 · 9.3%
A ANG win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Angers and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2015/16
ANG 51 drawn2 TRO
2022/23Angers2–1Troyes2023-05-27
2022/23Troyes3–1Angers2022-08-28
2021/22Angers2–1Troyes2022-01-23
2021/22Troyes1–1Angers2021-09-26
2017/18Angers3–1Troyes2018-01-17

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.