Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Angers vs Rennes
Sunday 6 Sept, 16:15
Full time
1–2
chances 1.87 – 2.37 xG
✓ called — we picked REN; the REN win we priced at 49%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
26 · 26 · 49ANG · draw · REN
1–2
Likeliest REN win · 10%
ANGERS 26%DRAW 26%RENNES 49%
Expected goals: ANG 1.16 · REN 1.68
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
ANG or draw51%
Draw or REN75%
ANG or RENno draw74%
Draw no bet
ANGstake returned on a draw34%
REN66%
Clean sheets
ANG clean sheet19%
REN clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ANG↓ REN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–2 · 9.6%
A REN win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Angers and Rennes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 19 meetings since 2015/16
ANG 24 drawn13 REN
2025/26Rennes2–1Angers2026-04-11
2025/26Angers1–1Rennes2025-08-31
2024/25Angers0–3Rennes2025-03-30
2024/25Rennes2–0Angers2024-12-15
2022/23Rennes4–2Angers2023-04-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.