Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Angers vs Marseille
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
23 · 24 · 54ANG · draw · MAR
1–2
Likeliest MAR win · 10%
ANGERS 23%DRAW 24%MARSEILLE 54%
Expected goals: ANG 1.19 · MAR 1.91
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
ANG or draw46%
Draw or MAR77%
ANG or MARno draw76%
Draw no bet
ANGstake returned on a draw30%
MAR70%
Clean sheets
ANG clean sheet15%
MAR clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ANG↓ MAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ANG goals, columns MAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Angers and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2015/16
ANG 29 drawn9 MAR
2025/26Angers2–5Marseille2026-01-17
2025/26Marseille2–2Angers2025-10-29
2024/25Angers0–2Marseille2025-02-09
2024/25Marseille1–1Angers2024-10-04
2022/23Marseille3–1Angers2023-05-14
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.