Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Angers vs Lille
Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00
Full time
0–2
chances 1.86 – 1.21 xG
✓ called — we picked LIL; the LIL win we priced at 55%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
18 · 27 · 55ANG · draw · LIL
0–1
Likeliest LIL win · 14%
ANGERS 18%DRAW 27%LILLE 55%
Expected goals: ANG 0.79 · LIL 1.57
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score44%
Double chance
ANG or draw45%
Draw or LIL82%
ANG or LILno draw73%
Draw no bet
ANGstake returned on a draw25%
LIL76%
Clean sheets
ANG clean sheet21%
LIL clean sheet45%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ANG↓ LIL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–2 · 11.6%
A LIL win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 12 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Angers and Lille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2015/16
ANG 74 drawn9 LIL
2025/26Angers0–1Lille2026-02-22
2025/26Lille1–0Angers2025-11-02
2024/25Angers0–2Lille2025-04-27
2024/25Lille2–0Angers2024-08-24
2022/23Angers1–0Lille2023-04-08
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.