La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 15)
Villarreal vs Real Betis
Monday 14 Sept, 19:00
Full time
1–2
chances 1.67 – 4.07 xG
✗ missed — we picked VIL; the REA win we priced at 21%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 15 assessments
57 · 22 · 21VIL · draw · REA
2–1
Likeliest VIL win · 10%
VILLARREAL 57%DRAW 22%REAL BETIS 21%
Expected goals: VIL 2.10 · REA 1.26
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
VIL or draw79%
Draw or REA43%
VIL or REAno draw78%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw73%
REA27%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet28%
REA clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VIL↓ REA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–2 · 5.5%
A REA win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
VIL 105 drawn7 REA
2025/26Real Betis2–0Villarreal2026-01-17
2025/26Villarreal2–2Real Betis2025-10-18
2024/25Real Betis1–2Villarreal2025-04-13
2024/25Villarreal1–2Real Betis2024-12-15
2023/24Real Betis2–3Villarreal2024-03-10
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.