La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Villarreal vs Real Betis
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
57 · 22 · 21VIL · draw · REA
2–1
Likeliest VIL win · 10%
VILLARREAL 57%DRAW 22%REAL BETIS 21%
Expected goals: VIL 2.06 · REA 1.21
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
VIL or draw79%
Draw or REA43%
VIL or REAno draw78%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw73%
REA27%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet30%
REA clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VIL↓ REA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VIL goals, columns REA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
VIL 105 drawn7 REA
2025/26Real Betis2–0Villarreal2026-01-17
2025/26Villarreal2–2Real Betis2025-10-18
2024/25Real Betis1–2Villarreal2025-04-13
2024/25Villarreal1–2Real Betis2024-12-15
2023/24Real Betis2–3Villarreal2024-03-10
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.