La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)

Villarreal vs Levante

Sunday 20 Sept, 16:30
Full time
3–1
chances 4.29 – 0.94 xG
✓ called — we picked VIL; the VIL win we priced at 60%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
60 · 20 · 21VIL · draw · LEV
2–1
Likeliest VIL win · 9%
VILLARREAL 60%DRAW 20%LEVANTE 21%

Expected goals: VIL 2.38 · LEV 1.40

Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
VIL or draw79%
Draw or LEV41%
VIL or LEVno draw80%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw74%
LEV26%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet25%
LEV clean sheet9%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VIL↓ LEV→012345
0
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3–1 · 7.1%
A VIL win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
VIL 111 drawn4 LEV
2025/26Villarreal5–1Levante2026-05-02
2025/26Levante0–1Villarreal2026-02-18
2021/22Levante2–0Villarreal2022-04-02
2021/22Villarreal5–0Levante2022-01-03
2020/21Levante1–5Villarreal2021-04-18

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.