La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Villarreal vs Elche
Saturday 17 Oct, 15:15
72 · 16 · 12VIL · draw · ELC
2–1
Likeliest VIL win · 9%
VILLARREAL 72%DRAW 16%ELCHE 12%
Expected goals: VIL 2.84 · ELC 1.19
Goals
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
VIL or draw88%
Draw or ELC28%
VIL or ELCno draw84%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw86%
ELC14%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet30%
ELC clean sheet6%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VIL↓ ELC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VIL goals, columns ELC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
VIL 53 drawn2 ELC
2025/26Villarreal2–1Elche2026-03-08
2025/26Elche1–3Villarreal2026-01-03
2022/23Elche3–1Villarreal2023-02-04
2022/23Villarreal4–0Elche2022-09-04
2021/22Elche1–0Villarreal2022-01-16
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.