La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
Villarreal vs Deportivo
Saturday 5 Sept, 19:00
78 · 14 · 8VIL · draw · DEP
2–0
Likeliest VIL win · 12%
VILLARREAL 78%DRAW 14%DEPORTIVO 8%
Expected goals: VIL 2.66 · DEP 0.79
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
VIL or draw92%
Draw or DEP22%
VIL or DEPno draw86%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw91%
DEP9%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet45%
DEP clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VIL↓ DEP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VIL goals, columns DEP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
VIL 34 drawn1 DEP
2017/18Deportivo2–4Villarreal2018-05-12
2017/18Villarreal1–1Deportivo2018-01-07
2016/17Villarreal0–0Deportivo2017-05-14
2016/17Deportivo0–0Villarreal2017-01-14
2015/16Villarreal0–2Deportivo2016-05-08
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.