La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)

Villarreal vs Deportivo

Saturday 5 Sept, 20:00
Full time
2–3
chances 3.64 – 2.44 xG
✗ missed — we picked VIL; the DEP win we priced at 8%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
78 · 14 · 8VIL · draw · DEP
2–0
Likeliest VIL win · 12%
VILLARREAL 78%DRAW 14%DEPORTIVO 8%

Expected goals: VIL 2.66 · DEP 0.79

Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
VIL or draw92%
Draw or DEP22%
VIL or DEPno draw86%
Draw no bet
VILstake returned on a draw91%
DEP9%
Clean sheets
VIL clean sheet45%
DEP clean sheet7%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VIL↓ DEP→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–3 · 0.8%
A DEP win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
VIL 34 drawn1 DEP
2017/18Deportivo2–4Villarreal2018-05-12
2017/18Villarreal1–1Deportivo2018-01-07
2016/17Villarreal0–0Deportivo2017-05-14
2016/17Deportivo0–0Villarreal2017-01-14
2015/16Villarreal0–2Deportivo2016-05-08

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.