La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Valencia vs Villarreal
Saturday 24 Oct, 17:30
30 · 26 · 44VAL · draw · VIL
1–2
Likeliest VIL win · 9%
VALENCIA 30%DRAW 26%VILLARREAL 44%
Expected goals: VAL 1.36 · VIL 1.69
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
VAL or draw56%
Draw or VIL70%
VAL or VILno draw74%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw40%
VIL60%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet19%
VIL clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VAL↓ VIL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VAL goals, columns VIL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
VAL 75 drawn12 VIL
2025/26Villarreal2–1Valencia2026-02-22
2025/26Valencia0–2Villarreal2025-10-25
2024/25Villarreal1–1Valencia2025-02-15
2024/25Valencia1–1Villarreal2024-08-31
2023/24Villarreal1–0Valencia2024-03-17
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.