La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)
Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Sunday 20 Sept, 19:00
Full time
2–3
chances 1.53 – 2.33 xG
✗ missed — we picked VAL; the RSO win we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
44 · 27 · 29VAL · draw · RSO
1–0
Likeliest VAL win · 10%
VALENCIA 44%DRAW 27%REAL SOCIEDAD 29%
Expected goals: VAL 1.52 · RSO 1.21
Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
VAL or draw71%
Draw or RSO56%
VAL or RSOno draw73%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw61%
RSO40%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet30%
RSO clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VAL↓ RSO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–3 · 2.4%
A RSO win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
VAL 88 drawn8 RSO
2025/26Real Sociedad3–4Valencia2026-05-17
2025/26Valencia1–1Real Sociedad2025-08-16
2024/25Valencia1–0Real Sociedad2025-01-19
2024/25Real Sociedad3–0Valencia2024-09-28
2023/24Real Sociedad1–0Valencia2024-05-16
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.