La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)

Valencia vs Real Betis

Tuesday 25 Aug, 19:00
Full time
0–1
chances 1.29 – 0.96 xG
✗ missed — we picked VAL; the REA win we priced at 32%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
40 · 28 · 32VAL · draw · REA
1–0
Likeliest VAL win · 10%
VALENCIA 40%DRAW 28%REAL BETIS 32%

Expected goals: VAL 1.39 · REA 1.22

Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
VAL or draw68%
Draw or REA60%
VAL or REAno draw72%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw56%
REA44%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet29%
REA clean sheet25%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VAL↓ REA→012345
0
1
2
3
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0–1 · 9.0%
A REA win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
VAL 67 drawn9 REA
2025/26Real Betis2–1Valencia2026-02-01
2025/26Valencia1–1Real Betis2025-11-09
2024/25Real Betis1–1Valencia2025-05-23
2024/25Valencia4–2Real Betis2024-11-23
2023/24Valencia1–2Real Betis2024-04-20

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.