La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30

Full time

0–0

chances 0.42 – 0.54 xG

✗ missed — we picked VAL; the draw we priced at 26%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

48 · 26 · 26VAL · draw · CEL

VALENCIA 48%DRAW 26%CELTA VIGO 26%

Expected goals: VAL 1.60 · CEL 1.15

Goals

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams score55%

Double chance

VAL or draw74%

Draw or CEL52%

VAL or CELno draw74%

Draw no bet

VALstake returned on a draw64%

CEL36%

Clean sheets

VAL clean sheet32%

CEL clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.