La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Valencia vs Barcelona
Sunday 6 Sept, 14:15
19 · 21 · 60VAL · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 10%
VALENCIA 19%DRAW 21%BARCELONA 60%
Expected goals: VAL 1.15 · BAR 2.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
VAL or draw40%
Draw or BAR81%
VAL or BARno draw79%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw24%
BAR76%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet12%
BAR clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VAL↓ BAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VAL goals, columns BAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
VAL 36 drawn15 BAR
2025/26Valencia3–1Barcelona2026-05-23
2025/26Barcelona6–0Valencia2025-09-14
2024/25Barcelona7–1Valencia2025-01-26
2024/25Valencia1–2Barcelona2024-08-17
2023/24Barcelona4–2Valencia2024-04-29
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.