La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Valencia vs Barcelona

Sunday 6 Sept, 15:15
Full time
0–5
chances 0.52 – 4.77 xG
✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 59%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
20 · 21 · 59VAL · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 10%
VALENCIA 20%DRAW 21%BARCELONA 59%

Expected goals: VAL 1.17 · BAR 2.10

Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
VAL or draw41%
Draw or BAR81%
VAL or BARno draw79%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw25%
BAR75%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet12%
BAR clean sheet31%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VAL↓ BAR→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–5 · 1.1%
A BAR win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
VAL 36 drawn15 BAR
2025/26Valencia3–1Barcelona2026-05-23
2025/26Barcelona6–0Valencia2025-09-14
2024/25Barcelona7–1Valencia2025-01-26
2024/25Valencia1–2Barcelona2024-08-17
2023/24Barcelona4–2Valencia2024-04-29

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.