La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Valencia vs Athletic
Saturday 17 Oct, 20:00
32 · 30 · 38VAL · draw · ATH
0–1
Likeliest ATH win · 11%
VALENCIA 32%DRAW 30%ATHLETIC 38%
Expected goals: VAL 1.17 · ATH 1.28
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
VAL or draw62%
Draw or ATH68%
VAL or ATHno draw70%
Draw no bet
VALstake returned on a draw46%
ATH54%
Clean sheets
VAL clean sheet28%
ATH clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VAL↓ ATH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are VAL goals, columns ATH. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
VAL 79 drawn8 ATH
2025/26Athletic0–1Valencia2026-05-10
2025/26Valencia2–0Athletic2025-09-20
2024/25Valencia0–1Athletic2025-05-18
2024/25Athletic1–0Valencia2024-08-28
2023/24Valencia1–0Athletic2024-01-20
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.