La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Sevilla vs Valencia
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
40 · 29 · 31SEV · draw · VAL
1–0
Likeliest SEV win · 12%
SEVILLA 40%DRAW 29%VALENCIA 31%
Expected goals: SEV 1.27 · VAL 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
SEV or draw69%
Draw or VAL60%
SEV or VALno draw71%
Draw no bet
SEVstake returned on a draw56%
VAL44%
Clean sheets
SEV clean sheet33%
VAL clean sheet28%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SEV↓ VAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are SEV goals, columns VAL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
SEV 79 drawn8 VAL
2025/26Sevilla0–2Valencia2026-03-21
2025/26Valencia1–1Sevilla2025-12-07
2024/25Valencia1–0Sevilla2025-04-11
2024/25Sevilla1–1Valencia2025-01-11
2023/24Valencia0–0Sevilla2024-02-17
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.