La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Sevilla vs Valencia

Friday 11 Sept, 19:00

Full time

1–0

chances 1.36 – 0.08 xG

✓ called — we picked SEV; the SEV win we priced at 42%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

42 · 30 · 29SEV · draw · VAL

SEVILLA 42%DRAW 30%VALENCIA 29%

Expected goals: SEV 1.33 · VAL 1.08

Goals

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams score50%

Double chance

SEV or draw71%

Draw or VAL58%

SEV or VALno draw71%

Draw no bet

SEVstake returned on a draw59%

VAL41%

Clean sheets

SEV clean sheet34%

VAL clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.