La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Sevilla vs Osasuna
Monday 26 Oct, 20:00
46 · 28 · 26SEV · draw · OSA
1–0
Likeliest SEV win · 11%
SEVILLA 46%DRAW 28%OSASUNA 26%
Expected goals: SEV 1.51 · OSA 1.10
Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
SEV or draw74%
Draw or OSA54%
SEV or OSAno draw72%
Draw no bet
SEVstake returned on a draw64%
OSA36%
Clean sheets
SEV clean sheet33%
OSA clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SEV↓ OSA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SEV goals, columns OSA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2016/17
SEV 75 drawn4 OSA
2025/26Osasuna2–1Sevilla2026-04-26
2025/26Sevilla1–0Osasuna2025-11-08
2024/25Osasuna1–0Sevilla2025-04-24
2024/25Sevilla1–1Osasuna2024-12-02
2023/24Sevilla1–1Osasuna2024-01-28
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.