La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Sevilla vs Barcelona

Saturday 19 Sept, 19:00
Full time
1–3
chances 0.76 – 3.56 xG
✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 66%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
14 · 19 · 66SEV · draw · BAR
1–2
Likeliest BAR win · 10%
SEVILLA 14%DRAW 19%BARCELONA 66%

Expected goals: SEV 1.05 · BAR 2.32

Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
SEV or draw34%
Draw or BAR86%
SEV or BARno draw81%
Draw no bet
SEVstake returned on a draw18%
BAR82%
Clean sheets
SEV clean sheet10%
BAR clean sheet35%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
SEV↓ BAR→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–3 · 7.5%
A BAR win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
SEV 25 drawn17 BAR
2025/26Barcelona5–2Sevilla2026-03-15
2025/26Sevilla4–1Barcelona2025-10-05
2024/25Sevilla1–4Barcelona2025-02-09
2024/25Barcelona5–1Sevilla2024-10-20
2023/24Sevilla1–2Barcelona2024-05-26

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.