La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)

Sevilla vs Atlético

Saturday 29 Aug, 19:30
Full time
1–3
chances 1.08 – 1.48 xG
✓ called — we picked ATM; the ATM win we priced at 40%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
34 · 26 · 40SEV · draw · ATM
0–1
Likeliest ATM win · 9%
SEVILLA 34%DRAW 26%ATLÉTICO 40%

Expected goals: SEV 1.35 · ATM 1.47

Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
SEV or draw61%
Draw or ATM66%
SEV or ATMno draw74%
Draw no bet
SEVstake returned on a draw46%
ATM54%
Clean sheets
SEV clean sheet23%
ATM clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
SEV↓ ATM→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–3 · 4.1%
A ATM win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
SEV 57 drawn12 ATM
2025/26Sevilla2–1Atlético2026-04-11
2025/26Atlético3–0Sevilla2025-11-01
2024/25Sevilla1–2Atlético2025-04-06
2024/25Atlético4–3Sevilla2024-12-08
2023/24Sevilla1–0Atlético2024-02-11

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.